Did Drone Warfare Change Military Strategy Forever?

 I've probably watched over 400 hours of warfare video over the past 3 years...from the Ukraine-Russia war.  So I've come to this belief.

Once you can build a $300 drone with superior capabilities, and launch against a squad of five guys in a fox-hole....marginally hidden in a wooded area, and drop a grenade in their midst....killing two and severely wounding three....an odd thing typically happens.  In the old days...they would have radioed for help, and an hour or two later....medics and a rescue team would have arrived.  But in this modern era....there's other drones watching/waiting....to kill them as well.  So no one comes, and unless the wounded get up to walk out.....they will probably die there over the next 24 hours.

Drone used to attack fuel-trucks/tankers?  That creates new problems....where tanks and heavy armor can't provide protection to forward units.

Drone-recon....taking out bridges?  If you halt logistics....so they can't take trucks or trains toward the front....then the supplies are cut, and units are left with the daily ration of ten bullets to survive, and limited food.

Russia not grasping this?  That's the weird part of the story.  They seem to have leadership handcuffed to a 1970s-type of mentality....that warfare is stationary and never improves.  

Swarm tactics?  I could see a heavy-lift 'drop' where you parachute a tractor-trailer load of drones into a region with 120 'armed' drones and launch at your own timing....against various targets.

Setting up  'seek-and-destroy' drones to go after helicopters?  You could have forty-odd drones sitting a pause situation, and launch on their own when a chopper enters a 'protected' area.

Bold new era approaching....drone-warfare is here to stay.

5 July 2025 German News Stories

 1. I watched a ARD (public TV) news piece....discussing the possible lack of public support for the SPD Party.  Major blame?  Pointing toward Klingbeil....co-party chief and Finance Minister.

No one is that excited over the path the party is going.  Greens might gain because of this.  Trending?  At 13-percent of public support for the party.

2.  An alliance of 15 pool associations are demanding extra gov't (fed/state) funding for public swimming pools. They say....the federal government alone should provide one billion euros per year. Consequences?  Well....they say hundreds of pools face closure.

Average cost of a outdoor pool ticket?  Between 4 and 6.5 Euro a person.  For the big-boy-type....with extras....near 10 Euro.

What I see coming....feds might agree to a billion Euro, but also insist on a 1.50 Euro 'tax' added on.  They might also arrange a federal 'ticket' for welfare folks....with a 1-Euro entry cost.  

3.  There's a discussion going on....more helicopters and fighter-jets to arrive over the next five years.  You will need more warehouses/hangers, so go and expect a construction boom for military bases in Germany.

4.  Last couple of days...some Iranian 'spy' arrested in Germany.  Some talk of a target-operation.  Target suggested?  Jewish stores/public areas, around Berlin.

5.  To tell the rest of the story over  the 'terror-attack' on the ICE train in  Bavaria from two days ago.

Police say the 20-year old Syrian guy was registered/living in Austria...where he'd entered in 2021, at age 16.  The Austrians had granted a 'status' at the time.

Things ran along ok until mid-to-late 2024....where he got into some confrontations, and charged-up (at least two charges), and convicted.

It appears he got on the train in Hamburg....with some drug collection (at least 3 different drugs).  Somewhere along in Frankfurt....he used some of his drugs, and somewhere along the path after entering Bavaria....he got hyped-up and aggravated....pacing the cabin. 

Then at some point, he was uttering the 'magic-words' (A-A), and some passenger felt it was appropriate to call the cops on their cellphone. Things deteriorated rapidly at that point. Syrian guy attacked five individuals with a hammer and axe.

Coming into the scene....a German Army enlistee (in uniform) grabbed a hold on the guy, and one of the wounded folks...grabbed the hammer and whacked on the drugged-up guy (banging him up pretty good).

The train stopped....Bavarian police entered, and in a fairly quick situation....the guy was removed/arrested.

What seems to be part of the story....Feb of this year....he was convicted on one crime, and the Austrians were setting into motion a deportation (it takes a while). It would appear his drug habit was already in motion at that time.

The score at this point?  The guy is in a hospital because of the hammer injury, and a court case is brewing....figure at least four charges...all enough to get you five to eight years in some German jail.  But I would suggest that some judge will assign a mental eval on the guy....to see if he is mature enough to  grasp the situation, and if he should remain for the rest of his life in some mental-holding facility.  

The Bundeswehr Army guy?  He probably deserves a medal.  The four folks wounded?  The Bahn folks ought to offer them some compensation tickets.   

6.  Bear attack in Romania.....motorcycle tourist.

7.  Polish Army folks being deployed to serve as border protection....against German border. Yeah, all this extra time demanded of  Polish folks entering Germany (commerce affected) has drawn finally a reaction, and it's going to be a pain now for Germans to respond to.

8. Some Hessen districts have tough drought rules....you can't retrieve water from lakes or streams.....for your yard/landscape.  

Ten Thoughts Over Russia At This Point

1.  Financially/economically.....it's pure 'printing' of money that keeps them going at this point. 

2.  It's hard to say the fall 2021 Census that Russia did....was legit.  The current population they said?  Around 144-million.

If you asked me over my skeptical view....demographics-wise....you can probably carve off 5-to-10 percent (meaning they were closer to 130-to-135-million)....then carve off 1-million deaths, and 1.5-million Russians who left the country....putting them at 127.5 million (likely).  

3.  Manpower for regular commerce/trade by the end of 2025?  I'm of the mind that even if you had a requirement for construction....you'd  likely have to bring in a non-Russian crew (from India or China). By 2030, I  would suggest more than 5-million non-Russians doing day-labor to make things work.

4.  As the war finally ends (probably by the end of 2025)....it's hard to imagine the rebuilding/re-arming required.  You could be talking about 30 years to assemble what they had in 2021....before the war.

5.  Who deserves most of the blame for the mess?  Putin and his FSB (former KGB) 'players'.  

6.  I think it's entirely a Trump-play....if he were to say that Siberia is possibly a acquisition (the 51st state routine)....if Russia falls apart.

7.  If you could get a clear and honest number for GDP....presently, I suspect Russia would not be in the top 50 countries.

8.   It's entirely possible that by the end of 2025....a agricultural problem exists, and Russia needs massive shipments of food....to keep the public alive.

9.  The whole concept of war.....completely changed over a four-year period.  Drones, recons, strategies, and planning....gone to a whole new level.  I don't think Russia ever understood....this was a experimental concept....taken on display.

You could probably write a 700-page summary on new concepts.

10.  Putin simply never saw the consequences of his action.  

4 July 2025: German News Stories

 1.  SPD Party wants to appoint a far-left judge to the German Constitutional Court.....Chancellor Merz hasn't said if he would support this.    If he goes negative on this....could be the first 'crack' in the relationship between the CDU and SPD.

2.  I was in a regional hardware store in Wiesbaden yesterday....entire fan/AC department....sold out.  Temp's have returned to normal (24-to-26 C)...for the next seven days....giving some relief.

3.  Focus report:  Russian soldier taken as prisoner....gives  interview of  final days of his unit (400-odd men)....of which only 16 surviving at the end when they gave up.  For the past year, while the Russians control a chunk of territory.....there's a weekly count of deaths.   One would almost say that the strategy is to lessen the young male population of Russia.  

4.  About an hour south of Frankfurt....an ICE train had a terror-attack.  Suspect?  20-year-old Syrian guy (registered in Austria)....armed with a hammer and an axe.  He attacked four folks....three of which were Syrian.  ICE train was running from Hamburg to Vienna.

Motivation?  Police so far  have no idea.  

5.  On the German deportation list....nearly 11,500 Afghans currently sitting on the list.

6.  AfD went and asked for a master-listing of citizen's geld (welfare money)....which had a fair number of non-German names listed.  They are simply making the point that the welfare fund is heavily supporting migrants at present.

7.  WELT went and talked  about a study of political leanings of journalists in Germany.  Nearly 41-percent are Green Party enthusiasts.  None were AfD enthusiasts.

8.  There are 'talks' going on between the AfD and BSW parties.  No clear understanding of where this might go.  BSW has no seats in the Bundestag, but has seats in various state assemblies.  Generally, people who voted for BSW....were left-leaning.  

9.  State of Hessen has declared that starting in August....as school restarts......all schools will be 'weapons-free zones'.  

What this means?  Any school can ask for a police 'walk'.....where kids can be questioned and frisked.  What they put 'extra' on the list of forbidden weapons?  Fireworks.

They also added a line....if you were caught  with a knife....the school can suspend you, and even kick you out entirely.  

3 July 2025: German News Stories

 1.  The term "playground" got dragged out in public in Koln.

The city administration wanted  to replace it with a new name and this meant 700 signs had to be replaced.  The mayor?  Outraged.

The replacement term talked about?  "Play and activity area."

You can figure....for each sign....cost-wise, it's near 100 Euro.  Then add man-hours....figure another 20k for man-hours.  Total waste.  

2.  All this chatter by the parties that some electrical taxes would 'end'....gone yesterday after a debate.  

3.  EU confidence vote to occur, with Von der Leyen.  Mostly right-wing effort....numbers should show confidence.

4.  Another Bahn AC story.  Lower Saxony region.  Folks were stuck having to call emergency services after two and a half hours. Two juveniles were hauled off to the local hospital from heat issues.. 

What the cops say....from Tuesday, 48 passengers were forced to sit on a train for 2.5 hours with a train crapped out with AC issues. 

Action by the train staff?  No.  Passengers ended up calling the police for help.

Germans and 40C?

 Around 19-percent of German houses/apartments have AC.  If you go back to around 2000....I doubt if the number went above 5-percent (2003 changed the perception).

If you talk about businesses?  Over the past 30 years....especially with gov't offices....I doubt if more than 5-percent of those were under some form of AC. 

The real 'pain'?  If your house is made of concrete.....with a week of 34 C on average daily....the concrete absorbs the heat, and at midnight....you check the temp to see that it's still around 28 C in bedroom (you are soaking with sweat).  So when it finally drops to around 24 C as your max daytime temp....it takes almost a week for the heat to 'dissolve' and things get back to normal.

What Happens To Kaliningrad In The Event Of A Russian 'Collapse'?

 I saw this question yesterday....since a number of economic folks are predicting a minimum of a Putin-collapse.....maybe even a dissolving-of-Russia collapse.

Kaliningrad used to be part of Prussia/Germany.  Königsberg....was the noted name until  the  Russians took it over (kicking out most of the German population).

Population?  Just 1,000,000 (at least...that's what the Russians say).

Around 2010....there was a suggestion that Russia was prepared to 'sell' Kaliningrad back to the Germans.  What this goes back to?  From 30 years ago....there was a debt that Russia owed Germany (say in the 50-billion dollar range).

My humble guess is that by the end of 2025....there's a massive finance problem, and this property situation will be brought up again.  The question is....would Germany go and buy Königsberg (renaming it back)?  

Is there any plus-up?  There's no real German population left....about 75-percent of the folks there are Russians.....2-percent are Ukrainian.  

Port-wise?  That might be an enticement.

Would it be worth 50-billion dollars?  I doubt it.  But if a Trump-like deal could be made....say for 20-billion?  Maybe.

But I just don't see the Merz gov't interested in this type of deal.

1 July 2025: German News Stories

 1.  Heat today?  35 C (95 F) in my valley.  One more day of this....then a massive amount of storms cross the valley on Thursday....cooling things off.

2.  Green Party pushing agenda....temp rises above 26 C....office shuts down.  

3.  I read a piece on Focus...warning of 'tens-of-thousands' of Germans dying from the heat wave.  

2003....the worst heat period I've seen.....it was in the range of 6,000 Germans (mostly older folks).

4.  Poland discussing 'checks' against German cars entering (retaliation for what the Germans are doing).