Greenland Chatter

The DR folks (public TV/radio in Denmark)....yesterday came out and said they have some type of investigation going on in Greenland...where they say at least three Americans with connections to President Donald Trump....have allegedly conducted covert influence operations in Greenland.

BS?  There's probably fifty-odd Americans who fly in daily to Greenland, and some  are there for  business...some for tourism, and yeah, there might be a couple for influence peddling.

Is any of this 'taking-possession-of-Greenland' making sense yet?  No.  That's the odd angle to the story.  Maybe there's tons of oil or natural gas to be part of this story.  Maybe rare-earth stuff.  But the believable story has  yet to come out.

All of this...to make for a remarkable comedy movie....secret agents to Greenland, Russian spies, and some Danish 007-Bond agent in the middle?  If Trump were to offer a NFL franchise team to Greenland, or some massive tunnel to reach the island?  It wouldn't shock me.

Unemployment Chatter

I sat this AM...reading over a Focus-business article.  Topic?  Well...for the first time in 14 years, more than three million people were registered as unemployed in Germany in August. 

Yes, unemployment bumped-up...46k....now at a level of 3.025 million folks. Unemployment nationally?  6.4 percent.

Over the past  month or two....there are various little indicators to say that for the remainder of 2025....it's going down this negative path.

Companies aren't planning to hire new employees or reduce jobs in the coming months.  Stagnation basically.

More pressure on the coalition?  Yes.  This talk of more taxes on industry and companies?  I can't see how this would be constructive. 

A lot of this going back to the lack of cheap Russian natural gas (because of the war)?  Yeah....you can pin around 50-percent of the issue upon that.

Wolf Story

 Our public TV folks...did a piece and laid out that the state (Hessen) now has a minimum of one wolf (having crossed some bridge from the Pfalz  to Hessen).

They also kinda admitted....the state isn't really counting wolves.

This leading to a 'problem'?  Yeah....probably.

Eventually, some wolf will go and drag a kid off into the woods.

27 August 2025: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  Dresden....another knife assault.  On Wednesday evening, a Syrian (16) and a Tunisian (24) got into a confrontation....each pulling out knives against each other....this time in the city center.  Both were wounded enough....to get ambulance care.

2. The German Bundeswehr Reservists Association.....has invited Green Party member Habeck (former vice-Chancellor) to come and join.  He's leaving/resigning out of the Bundestag.  I doubt if he'd take up the idea.

3.  Some suggestion of Switzerland joining the EU.  This would resolve the tariff problem with the US....however...vast majority of Swiss don't want the deal.

4.  Five-story apartment building in Berlin  deemed unstable....residents  have been tossed out for the moment.  It has been secured with steel cables for the moment.

5. Mainz drug gang (5 members) taken down by court....sentences handed out.

6.  State of NRW has written a draft law....as you are arrested/detained....your nationality would  be listed (something not currently done now).  Some people are saying it would help the AfD....if non-Germans were picked up for most crimes.

7. France in serious economic trouble....wants to put up a national austerity program.  PM does  NOT have the votes to carry this.   National unions now talking of a big nation-wide strike.

8.  The new German draft-law stipulates that starting in 2026, all young men and women will receive a questionnaire on their 18th birthday.  The way they describe it....it's supposed to lay out questions....where they might engage with you on your interest. Men have to complete the questionnaire.  Women?  Voluntary situation. After that...if suitable, you get a medical examination. In the first 'round', there is no compulsory military service.  If that fails....then compulsory comes up.

Older folks?  The Bundeswehr will also contact them and later and send them informational materials. 

Higher pay in the mix?  Yeah....conscripts will be paid as temporary soldiers, thus earning more than €2,000 net per month.

Do I believe this will work?  I'm pretty skeptical of the recruitment angle.

9.  WELT article: Three-quarters of all German hospitals are in the 'red'...meaning they have debt.

10. Bodo Ramelow (a Linke Party member, VP in the Bundestag), wants a new German national anthem. 

If I were selecting?  “Wind of Change”  by the Scorpions (1990).

I should add....Ramelow also wants a national vote on the flag (keep/replace). He says a fair number of Germans don't identify with it (presently).

Germans To The Exit Door?

 There's  an interesting article in Focus....worth a read....how Germans have reached a point where staying....is not worth the hassle.

The numbers?  Around 113,000 have left in 2025 (up to May).  At the same time in 2024....it was near 101,000.  The two places they mostly move to?   Switzerland and Austria.

Some of the reasons?  Professional growth/jobs, public safety improved, and disgruntled feelings over Chancellor (past and present) and the dismal record of accomplishments.

There was a ARD poll done.....how Germans feel satisficed about the gov't....with only 29-percent saying they were 'happy'.

Do I think the present gov't worries about this?  Not yet....but if you said the yearly number was up around 250,000....yeah....that might alert folks to  start a worry process.

The Draft Law

The German government has passed the extremely controversial Military Service Act and, if required....would lead to conscript recruits.  So it's designed start off without the draft....but mandatory service can also be the next step in the event of a shortage of soldiers. 

Initial goal?  To bring in around 100,000 trained reservists. This could double the current number. Furthermore, in consultation with NATO, the Bundeswehr plans to expand its active forces from the current 180,000 to 260,000. The goal is to grow the Bundeswehr to a total of 460,000 soldiers.

First step?   All men liable for military service, starting with those born in 2008, will be re-registered and asked to complete a mandatory online survey on their readiness and ability to serve in the armed forces. Then in the summer of 2027....the medical examination to determine fitness for military service will also become mandatory again for this group of individuals.

They are hoping that  they get the volunteers....avoiding the draft.

What I would have done....to avoid  this? I'd recruit with a home-account....you serve x-amount of time, you get 10,000 Euro for the purchase/renovation of your first home. I'd make a second and third bonus possible....bumping it up to 20,000 Euro possible for each bonus deal.

What Really Happens If AfD Reaches 30-Percent On Voting?

 Nothing much.  I don't see the public in some massive 'push' to vote for them.

So you would have a case where they'd win a election....then be unable to form a government, and after 6 weeks of effort....the President of Germany will hand the coalition effort over to the CDU (likely around 24-percent).

Their coalition effort?  Mostly taking the SPD (somewhere around 17-percent) and then eyeballing the 3rd partner...either the Greens or the Linke Party.  This 'talk' will be a rough period because either one will ask for massive tax increases.....to 'gift' the public presents.

German commerce will react in a negative way, and you end up with the least-capable coalition gov't  of the past sixty years.

It's not the end of the world if they were to win.....it's just that you rig things to be difficult to form a coalition gov't. 

Is Germany In The Middle Of A Beer Crisis?

 Well...beer sales in Germany are plummeting.  Added problem....the production costs rises, and there's been a couple of strikes (workers asking for more  pay).

Some popular brands are likely to disappear.

The 'boss' of Oettinger (Bavarian brewery) (Focus business article)....says there a wave of bankruptcies on the horizon and no way to hold back.  Consumption?  A general downward trend since the Covid era.  In one interview....the Oettinger guy says:  "Breweries will drop like flies off the wall."

Numbers?  2024....German breweries sold a total of around 8.3 billion liters of beer,.  That's around 1.5-percent less than 2023.  So far for 2025....at the halfway point....they'd only sold around 3.9 billion liters....so they probably won't even reach the 8-billion liter point by January.

Production levels at the big-3?  Oettinger, Radeberger, and Bitburger, all down.

If you asked me in general....what has happened....I'd lean toward three issues.

First, younger folks drink less beer than older folks....picking wines and cocktails.  Second, you are basically counting on the over-40 generation to make up for the loss, and there's only so much they can do.  Finally, production costs have rapidly gone up (that Russian natural gas cut-off did hurt).  

My wife gets around 8 shopping brochures each week, and she notes now....Bitburger  is on sale in two of the grocery chains each week.  They are discounting their price as much as possible....to keep production up.  I doubt if there's any substantial profit for the beer.

If you go and count full-up brewers and micro-brewers....there's probably 1,500 total, but I can't see more than 500 surviving in a decade.